Mobile Capex Finally Shifts to 3G Technologies, New Report FindsMobile network operators are finally moving their infrastructure spending away from GSM/EDGE and toward 3G W-CDMA/HSPA technologies, according to Heavy ReadingPRNewswire NEW YORK, June 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Mobile network operators are finally shifting their infrastructure capital spending away from GSM/EDGE technologies and toward 3G Wideband CDMA (W-CDMA) and High Speed Packet Access (HSPA), with carriers in Western Europe leading the 3G charge, according to a major new report from Heavy Reading (http://www.heavyreading.com/), the research unit of TechWeb's Light Reading (http://www.lightreading.com/). 3G Squeeze: GSM, LTE & the Future of Wideband CDMA delivers a complete analysis of the technology shifts now underway in mobile networks worldwide. Drawing on inputs from major GSM and W-CDMA/HSPA operators as well as interviews with major vendors, the report weighs the underlying technology, business, consumer, and regulatory dynamics that are shaping infrastructure decisions by mobile network operators around the world. The report includes a detailed forecast of mobile operator capex on GSM/EDGE, W-CDMA/HSPA, and emerging LTE technologies through 2012. The 53-page report assesses the positioning of mobile infrastructure vendors in each of the major technologies and across the 3rd Generation Partnership Program (3GPP) family as a whole. It examines the positioning of relatively new entrants such as ZTE, along with incumbent vendors in a market sector that is becoming more dynamic despite consolidation. The report analyzes suppliers' market positions and strategies for success in this newly volatile environment. For a list of companies profiled and analyzed in this report, go to: http://img.lightreading.com/heavyreading/pdf/hr20080604_companies.pdf "Over the last 18 months, HSPA has finally started to deliver on the mobile broadband performance promise of 3G," says Patrick Donegan, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of 3G Squeeze: GSM, LTE & the Future of Wideband CDMA. "There is genuine excitement on the part of users at being able to get out their laptops across extensive urban and suburban areas and consistently get at least 1 Mbit/s throughput over the air." However, the slower-than-expected adoption of 3G by network operators could result in a squeeze on the technology's lifespan if so-called 4G technologies are developed and rolled out as currently planned, Donegan adds. "Just as W-CDMA is finally starting to establish itself as the preferred global platform for mobile broadband services, it faces the prospect of being made redundant by an acceleration in the time to market of the 4G mobile WiMax and LTE standards," he says. "These technologies are designed to be deployed in much larger spectrum channel widths and offer better spectral efficiency, higher throughput, and lower latency than anything W-CDMA/HSPA can support." Still, Donegan predicts that capital spending on 3G infrastructure products will continue to grow through 2011, while capex on GSM/EDGE gear will begin to decline this year, after remaining stagnant since 2005. Key findings of 3G Squeeze: GSM, LTE & the Future of Wideband CDMA include the following: Global annual capex on W-CDMA/HSPA infrastructure will peak at about $19 billion in the 2010-2012 timeframe. For most GSM/EDGE or W-CDMA/HSPA operators, HSPA will be their primary, if not exclusive, platform for delivering mobile broadband services over the next three years. The era of GSM/EDGE dominance is coming to a close, and the first shutdowns of GSM networks are likely to occur as early as 2012. The main indicator for this decline is that growth in emerging markets is starting to flatten out. While strong-growth markets such as India may well see higher GSM/EDGE capex in 2008 than in 2007, other operators in emerging markets are starting to either reduce total capex or shift capex into W-CDMA/HSPA. The total 3GPP infrastructure market will decline slightly over the next five years, from $42.5 billion in 2008 to $38.5 billion in 2012. Increases in capex on W-CDMA/HSPA infrastructure will come at the expense of GSM/EDGE spending. Price cuts also will contribute to the revenue decline, as operators move to exploit opportunities to leverage still-greater economies of scale in their procurement, and as suppliers from China pursue aggressive pricing strategies to gain market share. Ericsson and Huawei appear to be in the best position to capitalize on changes in the 3GPP infrastructure market. Huawei is clearly the vendor with the most market-share momentum in GSM and W-CDMA, and is likely to breach the 15 percent global share barrier in 2009. Ericsson has held its market share, and may even have gained. Motorola and Nortel are losing the most ground in the 3GPP infrastructure sector, but both have ambitions to regain their position with LTE. 3G Squeeze: GSM, LTE & the Future of Wideband CDMA is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following: -- Mobile infrastructure technology suppliers: How will the shift in
carrier capex spending on GSM, W-CDMA/HSPA, and LTE equipment affect
your business? Where are the new opportunities for market growth? Are
your products and marketing messages in line with customer plans and
expectations? Are there significant gaps in your product lines that
need to be addressed to meet future demand?
-- Other equipment suppliers: How and when will demand for mobile
infrastructure technologies change? Which technologies are emerging as
the most likely winners for tomorrow's mobile networks? Is your company
in position to take advantage of those anticipated trends?
-- Mobile network operators: How do your plans for infrastructure
deployment compare with those of your competitors? Do your technology
choices give you a clear competitive advantage in terms of cost and
performance, or are there better alternatives? Which technology
suppliers are in the best position to deliver the solutions you need
for your mobile infrastructure plans?
-- Investors: Which technologies are emerging as the winning solutions for
next-gen mobile infrastructure, and which companies are the leading
providers of those solutions? How will shifts in capex for mobile
infrastructure affect the telecom supply chain in the coming months and
years?
3G Squeeze: GSM, LTE & the Future of Wideband CDMA costs $3,995 and is published in PDF format. The price includes an enterprise license covering all of the employees at the purchaser's company. For more information, or to request a free executive summary, contact: Dave Williams Sales Director, Heavy Reading 858-485-8870 dave.williams@heavyreading.com Press/analyst contact: Dennis Mendyk Managing Director, Heavy Reading 201-587-2154 mendyk@heavyreading.com About Heavy Reading Heavy Reading is an independent market research organization offering quantitative analysis of telecom technology to service providers, vendors, and investors. Its mandate is to provide the comprehensive competitive analysis needed today for the deployment of profitable networks based on next- generation hardware and software. About TechWeb TechWeb (techweb.com/aboutus), the global leader in business technology media, is an innovative business focused on serving the needs of technology decision-makers and marketers worldwide. TechWeb produces the most respected and consumed media brands in the business technology market. Today, more than 13.3 million* business technology professionals actively engage in our communities created around our global face-to-face events Interop, Web 2.0, Black Hat and VoiceCon; online resources such as the TechWeb Network, Light Reading, Intelligent Enterprise, InformationWeek.com, bMighty.com, and The Financial Technology Network; and the market leading, award-winning InformationWeek, TechNet Magazine, MSDN Magazine, Wall Street & Technology magazines. TechWeb also provides end-to-end services ranging from next-generation performance marketing, integrated media, research, and analyst services. TechWeb is a division of United Business Media, a global provider of news distribution and specialist information services with a market capitalization of more than $2.5 billion. * 13.3 million business decision-makers: based on # of monthly connections SOURCE: Heavy Reading CONTACT: Dave Williams, Sales Director, +1-858-485-8870, Web site: http://www.heavyreading.com/ |