Carrier Demand for 100-Gbit/s DWDM will Develop Before Products are Ready, New Report FindsThe need for 100G transmission is developing now, but network operators will have to wait three years before the technology is ready, according to Heavy ReadingPRNewswire NEW YORK, Nov. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Network operators around the world expect to migrate to 100-Gbit/s DWDM technology sometime within the next three years, but equipment suppliers may not have 100G DWDM products ready in time to meet that initial demand, according to a major new report from Heavy Reading (http://www.heavyreading.com/), the market research division of CMP's Light Reading (http://www.lightreading.com/). The Future of Optical Transport Networks: 40G & the Road to 100G delivers the industry's most comprehensive forward-looking analysis of the path to 100G DWDM deployments and the role that 40G will play along the way. The report is based on three months of in-depth interviews with major industry players, as well as results of a detailed global survey of network operators' 40G and 100G migration strategies. More than 100 service provider professionals from around the world participated in the survey, conducted in the third quarter of 2007. Along with data and analysis from the survey, The Future of Optical Transport Networks: 40G & the Road to 100G profiles and analyzes the strategies of key equipment suppliers in the 40G/100G DWDM sector. Analysis is based on direct interviews with executives and product managers in each company profiled. "After years of delay, network operators finally are moving on a wide scale to deploy 40-Gbit/s DWDM in their networks," notes Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report. "But even as 40G just begins to take hold, carriers already are anticipating a migration to 100G. The delayed adoption of 40G, combined with the relative proximity of standardized 100G, is greatly complicating the operator migration from 10- Gbit/s DWDM to the next level." Telecom equipment vendors that expect a more gradual migration to 100G may find themselves unable to capitalize on what looks like a fairly quick surge in demand, Perrin says. "Our survey shows that demand for 100G is developing now, but the technology itself is far from ready," he adds. "The good news for suppliers of chips, components, and systems is that when the products are ready, a market awaits. The bad news for operators is that - due largely to the telecom recession that stifled optical R&D - the wait will have to be three years." Other key findings of The Future of Optical Transport Networks: 40G & the Road to 100G include the following: -- The major market drivers for 40G deployments are the need to connect
interfaces on core routers, better economics versus 10G transmission,
and network capacity exhaust. The network operator professionals who
participated in Heavy Reading's worldwide survey of 40G/100G
deployment plans cited these factors most often for their company's
interest in moving to 40G transmission speeds.
-- The major drivers for 100G transmission will be similar to the drivers
for moving from 10G to 40G, but the economic factors rise to the top.
Based on our survey of network operators, the 100G migration drivers
will be (in descending order of importance): better economics compared
to 40G; better economics compared to 10G; the need to connect
interfaces on core routers; and network capacity exhaust.
-- 40G has an excellent near-term window of opportunity between now and
2010. Results from our network operator survey show that demand for
40G interfaces is immediate, with those deployments expected to
continue right through 2010.
-- After 2010, the move from 40G to 100G Ethernet will occur quickly.
Interviews with equipment suppliers and key standards bodies indicate
that 100G technology is just not ready today, and will not be ready
commercially before 2009 at the earliest. From a standards
perspective, IEEE and ITU-T work will not be complete before 2010 at
the earliest. Our survey results point to 2010-2012 as the key years
for rapid uptake of 100G transmission. Based on our interviews and
survey results, Heavy Reading believes strongly that, once 100G is
commercially viable and standardized, network operators will quickly
cap 40G investments and adopt 100G transmission for their future
deployments.
The Future of Optical Transport Networks: 40G & the Road to 100G is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following: -- Telecom service providers: How are network operators around the world
approaching the migration to 40G and 100G optical systems? How those
migration plans match up with your company's plans? What kinds of
factors are most likely to drive - or stall - implementation of 100G
in carrier networks? Which suppliers are in the best position to meet
your needs for next-generation optical products?
-- Telecom equipment manufacturers: How do network operator plans for 40G
and 100G deployment map to your product development plan? Is your
company "timing the market" correctly, or is there a chance that
demand for 100G products will materialize before your product
portfolio is ready? What types of network operators are likely to be
the first movers into the 100G sector, and when are they likely to be
ready to make that move? How will demand for 40G products be affected
by the timetables for 100G deployment?
-- Component and subsystem suppliers: What is the most likely demand
curve scenario for 100G optical components and subsystems? Which
equipment suppliers are emerging as the early leaders in the 100G
sector? Where are the market opportunities for your DWDM components
and subsystems?
-- Investors: How will the migration to 40G and 100G technologies affect
the optical networking sector? Which technology providers are likely
to emerge as the main suppliers of next-gen optical products, and when
are they most likely to reap those benefits?
The Future of Optical Transport Networks: 40G & the Road to 100G costs $3,995 and is published in PDF format. The price includes an enterprise license covering all of the employees at the purchaser's company. For more information, or to request a free executive summary, contact: Dave Williams Sales Director, Heavy Reading 858-485-8870 dave.williams@heavyreading.com Press/analyst contact: Dennis Mendyk Managing Director, Heavy Reading 201-587-2154 mendyk@heavyreading.com About Heavy Reading Heavy Reading is an independent market research organization offering quantitative analysis of telecom technology to service providers, vendors, and investors. Its mandate is to provide the comprehensive competitive analysis needed today for the deployment of profitable networks based on next- generation hardware and software. About CMP CMP (http://www.cmp.com/) is a media and marketing solutions company serving the technology industry. With the leading online, event, and print brands in all technology market categories, and with services and tools that reach beyond traditional advertising, CMP shapes and influences the technology industry worldwide. CMP publishes highly respected media brands such as TechWeb, InformationWeek, ChannelWeb, CRN, EE Times, and TechOnline; produces major industry events such as Interop, Web 2.0 Expo, XChange, Game Developer Conference, and the Embedded Systems Conferences; and provides business information and marketing services such as the International Customer Management Institute, Semiconductor Insights, and Second Life consulting for technology marketers. CMP is a subsidiary of United Business Media (http://www.unitedbusinessmedia.com/), a global provider of news distribution and specialist information services with a market capitalization of more than $3 billion. For more CMP news, go to cmp.com/news. SOURCE: Heavy Reading CONTACT: Dave Williams, Sales Director, +1-858-485-8870, Web site: http://www.lightreading.com/ |